🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|